Current political violence in BD hitting nascent tourism industry very hard

Dhaka : Bangladesh is now in the grip of unpredictable political violence and resulting insecurity of the highest order. The nascent tourism industry of Bangla-desh is now facing long lasting damages due to civil unrest in the form of uninterrupted blockade, frequent hartals and associated violence of various nature.

It is the peak of tourism season-December-March– and tour operators of the country were buoyant with expectation that performance and growth in 2014-15 would surpass performance and growth of 2012 by a big margin.

But picture changed radically because of political turmoil. Almost all the bookings for the month of January from foreign tourists have been cancelled. About 5,000 tourists were expected to arrive in Bangladesh until March, but if blockade, hartal and associated violence do not end soon, rest of the bookings are also going to be cancelled.

Starting from January 5, nonstop blockade and the accompanying violence and destruction have created highly unsafe situation in the country_ a situation seriously damaging the sector. The unwelcome and highly adverse situation prompted the tour operators to organise an urgent press briefing to voice their concern. They told that the tourism sector may count a loss of Tk 100 crore in the next three months due to cancellations of planned tours by foreign travellers, because of political violence.

It can be safely said that, the budding tourism industry in the country is reeling under the situation, created by civil unrest all over the country and tour operators are going through problems of unprecedented nature, in addition to huge financial loss.

It is interesting to note that cancellations of booked trips result in only monetary loss to the tour operator or loss of business, no other trouble. But they are facing really tough time in handling the foreign tourists who have already arrived.
In a situation as uncertain as prevailing in the country now, a number of tour operators of the country are displaying lot of ingenuity in handling their groups of foreign tourists, already arrived.

Domestic tourism
Taking effects on inbound tours, domestic tours, hotel and restaurants and transportation sectors together, the financial loss has already become huge. If the adverse situation continues further, the damage to the sector would be colossal and might go beyond recovery in some cases.

Domestic tourism industry is suffering heavy losses due to the situation. Along with tour operation, the hospitality industry of the country is also badly hit.

Around 400 hotels, motels, and guesthouses in Cox’s Bazar are estimated to have lost about Tk 224 crore business up to January 20. Between December 17 last year and January 4 this year Cox’s Bazar sea beach was visited by about 7 lakh visitors. But on January 20, the number came down to less than 100. Condition of other tourist attractions of the country is also the same.

Importance of tourism
Despite government neglect, tourism in Bangladesh has made significant progress due to contribution of private sector. The total contribution of travel and tourism to GDP is forecast to rise by 6.8 per cent per annum to Tk 819.4 billion in 2023. This is according to a study of World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC).

Direct employment support by travel and tourism is forecast to rise by 2.9 per cent per annum to 1,785,000 jobs or 1.9 per cent of total employment in 2023.

This includes employment by hotels, travel agents, airlines and other passenger transportation services (excluding commuter services). It also includes, for example, the activities of the restaurant and leisure industries directly supported by tourists.

The total contribution of travel and tourism to employment, including jobs indirectly supported by the industry is expected to rise by 3.2 per cent per annum to 3,891,000 jobs in 2023_ 4.2 per cent of total.

Visitor exports is forecast to grow by 4.9 per cent per annum, to Tk 12.8 billion in 2023_ 0.5 per cent of total.

The investment in travel and tourism is forecast to rise by 6.0 per cent per annum to Tk 67.4 billion in 2023 or 1.5 per cent of total.

Not new
It is not new that political violence hitting the nascent tourism industry of the country. The turmoil in 2006 and 2013 and consequent loss to the industry is has not faded from the memory yet. The tourism sector counted huge losses in 2013 due to political violence. “We didn’t even recoup the losses from 2013 spell that another one has arrived. It is ruining the country’s image,” some of the tour operators said.

The tour operators’ encountered man made adverse situation in 2006 when lingering row between the two major political parties led to a series of hartals, demonstrations and violence. The situation was unsafe for tourism and tour operators suffered a great slump.

In 2000, foreign tourist arrivals in Bangladesh were 199,000, and that number increased by 56.25 per cent over the decade to 303,000 in 2010, according to a report by the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific.

In 2011, foreign tourist arrivals generated 380 million taka-odd, with the number forecasted to cross the 400 million-mark in 2012, according to a World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC) study.

The travel and tourism sector raked in Tk 182.5 billion, about 2.2 per cent of the gross domestic product (GDP) in 2011.

The sector’s contribution is forecast to rise by 7.3 per cent in 2012, and by 6.1 per cent annually until 2022, according to the WTTC study.

End of good time
The good times that the local tour operators saw in 2012, unfortunately did not roll into next years due to political turmoil, according to tour operators in Bangladesh.
But current political turmoil and its negative impact on the tourism likely to affect the growth forecast about tourism’s contribution to the Bangladeshi economy.

Bad impact of political unrest
The year 2006 and 2013 are going to be marked as the worst years for the nascent tourism industry of Bangladesh. The causes were both avoidable and manmade which could have been avoided. Following these two years, the current political turmoil has put over Tk 4,000 crore investment in the sector is under serious threat, according to industry insiders.

Inbound tour operators had to cancel most of their booking. Domestic scene was also equally bleak. Cox’s Bazar, Sunderbans and Chittagong Hill Tracks_ the three most attractive tourist destinations in the country_ remained almost tourist less for entire 2013. Usually, the size of domestic tourist is about 50 lakh, but this year the number was reduced to only less than 1.5 lakh.

In addition to tour operation, transportation and hospitality sectors of the country are the other big losers. The absence of tourism traffic both foreign and domestic, caused the hospitality and transportation industries to suffer huge financial losses. In addition, transportation industry suffered physical damages from targeted violence.

Tour operators confirm that in the tourist generating countries, people are now showing interest in visiting Bangla-desh. This new found interest and number of booking recei-ved indicated that in 2014-15 growth in inbound tourism would be very healthy. Unfor-tunately, that is not to be so.

According to them, 2012 was a good year for inbound tourism. Compared to 2011, the growth in number of holiday or leisure foreign visitors was between 15 and 20 per cent. The growth in domestic tourism was more than 100 per cent.

 

The reality
The growth forecast is based on the performances of the past years. But unexpected political development and resulted in unsafe situation, hit the industry badly. The overall negative impact of 2013 situation is still there to be felt and it is being feared that the impact of current situation may push the industry backward significantly.

Tour operators of the country were buoyant with expectation that performance and growth in 2014-15 would surpass performance and growth of 2012 by big margin. But civil unrest engulfed entire year and programmes like hartals, road blockades and associated violence, jeopardised everything.

Taking effects on inbound tours, domestic tours, hotel and restaurants and transportation sectors together, the financial loss has already become huge. If the adverse situation continues further and moves further to 2015 season, the damage to the sector would be colossal and might go beyond recovery in some cases.